“The Iran War Will Demolish Trump’s Mandate
When you’re at war, an asymmetry is a situation where one army is far stronger than the other. But there’s another kind of asymmetry — the kind we saw in Afghanistan. An ultra-powerful army — the American one — dominated a rudimentary one — the Taliban’s — from every military standpoint. Yet the US left Afghanistan defeated. Just as, some time before, the USSR had left defeated from the same place. The same asymmetry: an ultra-performing, ultra-equipped army against bearded men with rifles in hand. What’s the mystery?
As a counterbalance, asymmetry also brings another type of asymmetry: the one where the ragged fighter you’re battling has almost nothing to lose, while for you, the powerful one, every blow you take is catastrophic. That’s roughly the current situation with Iran. Yes, the Americans have a catastrophically superior offensive force compared to Iran. Except that every Iranian missile hits an ally target that is far too expensive to lose. Iran has no significant military targets. I know that sounds absurd, but that’s the truth. To be more precise, Iran’s significant military targets are 1 km underground — far too deep for anyone to do anything about. Their missiles, for the most part, can be launched from anywhere.
Moreover, as an effect of the asymmetric attack, something else has emerged — revealed surprisingly when Iran attacked the port of Duqm in Oman. It was a move that left everyone speechless, since Oman had firmly condemned the attack on Iran and is one of the mediators that the Tehran regime trusts.
Following the incident, Abbas Araghchi had an emergency phone call with his Omani counterpart, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi. He also made a public statement expressing regret: “What happened in Oman was not our choice. We had previously given instructions to our armed forces to be careful in selecting targets. Our military units are now somewhat independent and isolated, acting on pre-established general instructions.”
What Araghchi said is a nightmare for any military planner, as it reveals that chaos has surfaced. The attackers are no longer fighting an army — they’re fighting thousands of autonomous armies that can no longer be controlled. If you remember, this is exactly what I was saying before the war began. The Iranians had prepared even for the scenario in which the entire national leadership would be decapitated and there would be no one in power. What is happening now is absolutely chaotic and incomprehensible to the attackers. Autonomous units operate within the bounds of general instructions, attacking without receiving orders. It’s a true storm.
“But can’t the country’s leadership intervene?” — would be the question. Iran does have a coherent, constitutional leadership. Well, here lies a problem. The leadership intervenes publicly, through messages like those of the Foreign Minister. That’s how the troops are told not to attack Oman — and that’s about it. But not through a firm command, because on official communication channels now only two commands can be issued: either a ceasefire, or a generalization of the conflict. And Iran is currently not in a position to issue either of those two commands.
The story that isn’t told on TV is a complicated one. Trump found himself with a boulder on his head as a result of his own stupidity. I note with astonishment that the man is completely limited — intellectually and psychologically. The killing of Khamenei was, for him, a re-enactment — with himself as the main character — of the US military’s killing of Osama bin Laden. Recall the photos released to the press at the time, showing Obama watching the operation live. Trump was determined to appear in the press with similar photos, but with himself in the lead role. He has developed a dubious obsession with Obama. It’s painfully clear that it’s warping him, inadvertently exposing his “as-if” personality (in the sense explained by Helene Deutsch). Only that, immediately after indulging his little vanity, he was struck hard by news from the Gulf.
The high death toll came like a mace blow. Similarly, the abandonment of military units by soldiers taking shelter in hotels only to be killed by Iranians is another problem. In theory he should withdraw them, but he lacks the logistics. To make things even more complicated, all sorts of unknown militias have activated and are fighting against the US. And even though the Gulf state leaders are all faithful subjects of the US-Israel alliance, at the grassroots level the population is profoundly discontented and, in wartime conditions, major surprises can emerge.
To top it all off, what filled the cup wasn’t a single drop but a firehose — when the report came in regarding the stock of interceptor missiles. That’s the real wound that makes both Americans and Israelis tremble.
Someone once told me an amusing story from their youth. As a student, he went with a friend to a restaurant for drinks. Neither of them had money, but each assumed the other did. They found themselves staring at each other when the waiter placed the bill on the table. In a way, the same thing has just happened.
The Pentagon told Trump it was not a good idea to attack Iran. Trump, however, believed Netanyahu, who told him that a regime change in Iran was achievable. Moreover, Trump believed all the nonsense told about the Israeli military, while Netanyahu was convinced that the US — as world policeman — had all the necessary equipment to wage the war. Equipment which, as it turns out, it doesn’t have. The stocks of interceptor missiles are running out, and even with the famous Tomahawk missiles, there’s no room for waste. And this is the great tragedy.
Until now, Iran has attacked with ballistic missiles from its old stock, modernized only in terms of precision. Do you know how many have been fired? 1,219 — according to IRGC sources. For each missile, 3–4 interceptors were launched. The desperation is so great that the Americans have left their Gulf allies defenseless, so Iran is now successfully hitting them with first-generation Shahed drones. The US Navy has officially announced it cannot ensure the defense of all targets in the region, focusing instead on protecting itself and its aircraft carriers. But the main problem is the rapid depletion of stocks and the prospect of being caught empty-handed if the conflict drags on.
Otherwise, the situation is visible from a mile away. Netanyahu is “doing his work” around Europe, while his citizens are sent to huddle like rats underground. Do those people — who were dancing with utterly mindless joy at the beginning of the conflict — have any idea that they’re dealing with one of Netanyahu’s follies, a recklessness without limits that is sending them to the slaughter? They have no idea, just as they’ve never wanted to have any idea throughout history whenever their leaders went off the rails. But perhaps now, in the final analysis, they ought to understand that Netanyahu is spending suspiciously long amounts of time working his way around Europe instead of sharing the fate of those in Israel — while his family is in New York.
Now let’s go through what has happened synthetically, to get a clear picture.
First, it must be noted that Iran resisted admirably on day one. Although some leaders were eliminated, the number is smaller than last time. The killing of Khamenei — who, incidentally, refused to hide, saying he would not do so “as long as ordinary Iranians cannot be moved into bunkers” — demonstrated, as I said, that it has absolutely no impact on the resilience of the leadership. Each position has 4 pre-established lines of succession, and each transition comes with the immediate establishment of another 4 lines. This ensures tremendous resilience. They also successfully struck 11 different countries, destroying both American military bases and US economic interests. It’s a terrible price the Americans are paying.
Israel (the greatest regional power), alongside the US (the greatest global power), maintains the terrible asymmetry of a conflict unjustified by international law. From the very first strike they landed stunning blows that propaganda keeps highlighting. However, as I have said, the blows were absorbed by Iran without difficulty. Furthermore, the distributed way in which the army operates makes it impossible to decapitate the country. Iran can absorb a great deal — the point is that despite the assassinations and strikes, it is reacting even more harshly than expected. And this time, the reaction came not with delay, but almost immediately.
What must be mentioned is that after the first day and a half, the human losses of the Israel-US alliance are greater than those of Iran. And this is where desperation sets in. Iran has not yet deployed its premium weapons — all strikes have been delivered with old ballistic missiles and half-blind Shahed drones. As for air defense, what must be understood is that Iran does not have a coherent air defense system. The few pieces of equipment provided by China and Russia cannot possibly cover Iran’s vast territory and, moreover, cannot operate in a coordinated manner. That requires years of work and an enormously complex infrastructure. It cannot be improvised in a few months. Even so, the invaders avoided entering Iranian airspace, preferring to strike from outside it.
If the war continues, the complete shift of Iraq against the US becomes predictable, along with the collapse of the pro-American regime in Bahrain. As for the Sunni states, there is a major problem: their leaderships are completely disconnected from the base of their societies. Right now, the US and Israel are desperately seeking solutions, with the most convenient being to push the Sunni states into a ground war against Iran — which would generalize the conflict. But will the people go to war? Interesting too are the intra-Sunni conflicts. Saudi Arabia, for example, is in a smoldering conflict with the UAE, which is a de facto ally of Israel. Even though things appear diplomatically fine on the surface, in reality I doubt they would fight alongside each other. Even for the UAE, their successful project of transforming the country and orienting it toward tourism and business proves to be futile and extremely fragile. And again, ordinary people are beginning to see that this project isn’t for them — by and large, they still live in the same poverty. Have you ever gone past Dubai’s glitter to visit its outskirts?
Trump set a one-week deadline for the war. After the first day and a half, things don’t look good. The return of strategic bombers after flying all the way from the US to near the Iranian border is a dubious sign. So is Trump’s refusal to speak to the press. Even his statement — claiming that new Iranian officials (who? — they’re the same people!) had asked him to negotiate — turned out to be nonsense, denied multiple times by all major parties in Iran.
The point is that if the conflict drags on, the midterm elections are as good as lost for Trump. In the US, accusations have already begun to fly, and Democrats are riding the wave. California Democrat Ro Khanna stated bluntly: “Netanyahu has tried in the past to convince other US presidents that regime change in Iran was possible, and Trump was the only one stupid enough to try it.” And it’s only the beginning. He’s being strongly challenged even from within his own camp. Thomas Massie (Representative, Kentucky) called the attacks “acts of war unauthorized by Congress.”Also from Kentucky, Senator Rand Paul stated: “My oath is to the Constitution, so I must oppose yet another presidential war.” Marjorie Taylor Greene (Georgia), who holds enormous influence in MAGA, harshly criticized the attack, calling it a betrayal of the 2024 electoral mandate.
I close this piece — which has already run quite long — with an observation made by a Chinese propagandist. He said that in this conflict, China plays a role both of support and of study. Moreover, he let slip a remark from a military analyst who said he now understands the fragility of the aircraft carrier warfare system. According to the analysis, if US aircraft carriers are kept at a distance of 2,000 km from the coast, their role in the conflict becomes null.
And only now do we have a picture resembling a chess/go board. There is a conflict opened by the US in Ukraine, a conflict opened by the same US in Iran. Is China preparing to accelerate the opening of a conflict in Taiwan? That would be the third major front. Not to mention Venezuela, somehow left in suspension but with troops in position. Trump, in his recklessness, is already fighting on three fronts. If China opens a fourth — where does that lead? And above all, what can come out of all this madness? Regardless of whether the conflicts escalate or subside, I believe Trump’s mandate has already been spent — and the elections he was hoping to save are already lost.”