“Something Strange is Happening
Yesterday the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln attempted to move closer to the Strait of Hormuz to try to protect oil tankers and unblock the situation. However — according to IRGC statements — it was attacked by Iranian next-generation drones and turned back, with reports indicating it is currently more than 1,000 km from the Iranian coast. Perhaps the information given by the IRGC is false. We do, however, have another piece of information about a collision between American and Iraqi forces somewhere in the desert area of western Iraq. After several hypotheses, the most likely is that they were searching for a pilot who managed to eject from an aircraft shot down by Iranian air defenses. The incident has not been acknowledged by the US or Israel. But then what were they doing in the desert?
It’s possible that the information I have is false. It’s good to maintain a reserved attitude, especially when you don’t have clear confirmation. But the destruction of American military bases in the Gulf states can no longer be considered false (CNN has even gotten around to reporting on them). Nor can the way Israeli cities look after each round of bombardments. Every time, Israeli war propaganda announces how they destroyed hundreds of rocket launchers, how they put more than 60% of Iran’s ballistic missiles out of action — but what you actually see when you add it all up paints a completely different picture. My view is that all the chatter from Israeli propaganda is aimed strictly at calming a population that has grown tired of living underground, as a result of the warmongering policies of the deviant Netanyahu.
During the course of yesterday, Iran used the Khorramshahr 4 against Israel for the first time. It is not exactly known what damage it caused, but the problem with this new ballistic missile is that it carries multiple fragmentation warheads, causing devastation in the area it strikes. The hypersonic missiles — which they claimed didn’t exist — cause disaster with every launch.
Israel’s air defense system appears exhausted. It may have run out of ammunition. There are rumors that Trump is withdrawing air defense munitions from around the world to redirect them to the Gulf. Taiwan, Japan, Korea — all are being forced to send their remaining stockpiles to save America’s face.
What the world can see with the naked eye, however, is that systems costing billions of dollars are worth nothing. Iranian missiles pass through them like a knife through butter, and the desperation with which useless ammunition is thrown at them inevitably calls to mind the technique of fishing with a dragnet. And bear in mind — until now, with minor exceptions, the Iranians have used Shahed drones and missiles from their old stockpile, the one considered technologically obsolete. Only now are they beginning to use more recently produced missiles.
For the first time since the conflict began, I see a radical shift in the tone of the Western press. In the Financial Times, for example, I read a story that in other times would never have been published. Gulf states want to withdraw their “investments” from the US — negotiated with Trump — because of the destruction they are suffering. And there’s another lesson here. These states built American military bases and hosted the occupation army because they were convinced that in doing so they would shelter under the “protective umbrella of Big Brother.” And now, in wartime conditions against a minor power, “Big Brother’s” protection isn’t worth a damn. The military bases were wiped out in no time at all, and the so-called protection amounts to zero.
Something tells me that the Gulf states have just woken up from their hypnosis. Not only have they realized they are completely exposed, but in the corridors of their chancelleries, “Trump’s Plan” for saving the dollar has begun to be discussed. This plan would supposedly be based on the large-scale destruction of Gulf oil infrastructure as a result of the war, during which the US would enrich itself by selling Venezuelan oil and thereby save the dollar. Furthermore, following a devastating war and the defeat of Iran, the US would set up a second “gas station” on the Venezuelan model in Iran, thus having its own petrodollar.
Only a simplistic mind like Trump’s could conceive of such an absurd plan. You’d have to be truly foolish to be so ignorant of the global oil market and the effect of imbalances that would cause even you, the conspirator, to fall into the pit of your own wet dream of being a universal gas station owner. This is one element that indicates, beyond any doubt, the sharp decline the US finds itself in. For a truly great power, it’s not a problem when a fool reaches power — it becomes a problem when a fool manages to imprint his oligophrenic vision on the entire state, when he no longer meets rational opposition within the machinery of government. Just look at the parrots over there: Steve Witkoff, Pete Hegseth, or the strange “gigolo” Rubio. It’s plain to see that stupidity is overflowing there.
For those of us watching from the sidelines, the story is somewhat amusing — but for the leaders of the Gulf states, everything is taking on a dark shape. It’s one thing to observe the error from a distance, and quite another to wake up and find that a fool at the other end of the world wants to save himself from bankruptcy at your expense. These states are now caught between a rock and a hard place, understanding better than anyone what Lavrov conveyed to them — that “you cannot ride two camels at the same time.”
This is why, having woken up in a daze, they are now trying to patch up whatever can still be patched. Withdrawing investments from the US comes first, because they have suffered serious losses from the freezing of activity and infrastructure destruction, to the point where they simply have nothing left to draw from. I won’t even mention the reputational damage, which is irreparable. The second phase will come in the form of pressure on the US to end the war. And if that fails, what the third phase will entail is not yet clear — because if we look at what is happening in Bahrain, in some states there may even be violent changes as a result of the current conflict.
I know you will once again look at me with skepticism. “Who in Dubai would turn against the leadership?” those who have only seen the glitter of the Emirates will ask. I ask something else: who will not turn against the leadership when they and their families are starving? The Gulf states import between 80% and 90% of the food they consume, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already sent a shock through the world fertilizer market. How will harvests be made in conditions where modern agriculture depends on fertilizers? Only now can anyone understand that the effect of this conflict — even if it appears limited — is at least medium-term. And the damage — meaning prices — has already increased, amplifying the inflationary spiral. Trump, in his obliviousness, says he doesn’t care about oil prices. We’ll see! Shall we bet that within a week or two he will have changed his mind?
I’ll close here with the doubt of a man who has collided far too many times with propaganda. I tell you that something strange is happening in this conflict. One side is winning too consistently without anyone actually handing it the victory. And, as a final remark — again Trump has said that Iran wants to negotiate. This after everyone in the state and military leadership has been screaming continuously on social media that Iran no longer wants to negotiate. So who is asking Trump for negotiations? Either he talks to himself in the mirror and ends up hearing voices, or he believes that the parrot who calls himself a Shah is the leader of Iran. Or, quite simply, he barks like a dog at the moon — just hoping someone might pay attention.”